Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi reported on the future outlook and said there are regional pockets of strength developing: tech centers, areas where health care is strong like Boston, Raleigh, N.C., Orange County, Calif., Seattle, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C.. Positive about the future Zandi said in a Stateline.org interview at the Pew Charitable trust offices,”For the near term, we’re clearly headed in the right direction. GDP (gross domestic product) is growing, the job market is stabilizing. The best forecast is that a year from now, we’ll bring down the jobless rate. Another reason for optimism is we’re righting some of the wrongs. One of the wrongs is the high level of indebtedness of U.S. consumers. We’re working through that pretty quickly. Leverage (borrowing) is falling rapidly, in part, because people are defaulting and, in part, because other people aren’t borrowing at all or are repaying their debt. In the housing market, the excess homes we built, the inventory, is being worked off very rapidly. Demand is weak, but supply is even weaker. Last, I think we are using the recession as an opportunity to make more fundamental changes in our financial system and the health care system. We may not all be happy with how it turns out, but we’ll have a better system because of it. So there’s reason to be optimistic in the long run.”

New U.S. single-family home sales rose in October to their highest level in a year pointing to a stabilizing housing market. The Commerce Department said sales jumped 6.2 percent to 430,000 the highest since September ‘08, from a revised 405,000 in September.

The sales rise dropped the supply of new homes on the market down to 239,000 units, the lowest since May 1971.

October existing home sales jumped a record 10.1 percent. Sales are up 23.5 percent since October 2008 lows, which also is a record for year-over-year jump, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The median sales price of an existing home in October was $173,100, down 7.1 percent from October 2008. That’s the smallest decline in median home price in more than a year.

By region of the country:
Northeast: up 11.6 percent, Midwest: up 14.4 percent, South: up 12.7 percent, West: up 1.6 percent.
The West had the biggest foreclosure home states — California, Nevada and Arizona.
Existing home inventories are down to a seven-month supply.
from The Washington Post

Registrations at all three VA, NJ and NY Live South shows equaled ‘08, with Long Island posting an increase. Exibitors agreed on thier success, Bob Vantrease, Delaware Shore President, K.Hovnanian Homes said, “I participated in all three Live South Septmeber shows and was pleasantly surprised. The volume and quality of prospects exceeded my expectations and Live South will definitely be an integral part of my 2010 marketing plan.” Marc Wilson, the Settings at Black Mountain reported a $125k homesite sale from NY. Myles Newell, Grand Villas, sold an 800k condo from NJ.

The Federal Reserve reported, August, that 11 of the 12 Districts were “stable.” The Fed fund lending rate will remain near zero for “an extended period” at least through 1st Qtr ‘10. Equity markets have responded positively. The Dow, NASDAQ and the S&P 500 all finished 3 Qtr on a high, posting gains of about 15%. The Dow closed above 10,000 for the first time since ‘07. The NARealtors reported Sept. was the seventh monthly pending home sales increase, 6.4%. The NAHBuilders reported August new home; sales up .07% the 5th monthly increase and inventories down for the 28th monthly decline to a 7.3 month supply. They also said builder confidence was up in Sept. for the 3rd consecutive month.

CEO Bob Toll thinks buyer confidence has returned and is betting it sticks around.
Paraphrased from Builder Magazine

Housing has gotten better and gone beyond anecdotal tales…strong enough to indicate a true reverse in market conditions, Toll Brothers CEO Bob Toll told analysts Wed. Aug 12.
“the mood of the market has changed,” Tolls said while announcing better than expected Q2 earnings.
“it’s not greater affordability or ability to finance…it’s a better feeling about the present and future of the economy.” While the number of people visiting Toll Brothers’ communities still “stinks” the people buyers are serious and they’re not quibbling as much about price. Before prospects would ask ‘Where are you? What’s your price?’ They would keep coming back looking for more incentives and a better deal and that seemed to be what was driving sales. Recently they are concerned more with other aspects, such as lots, location, general options, what can be built and when can they get into the home. “It’s no longer a price equation.” It’s strong enough evidence for Toll to pull communities out of mothballs. “We believe it’s the right thing to do to try and crank it up more than to sit and wait…”

June housing starts released by HUD in July show the biggest increase in 8 years, 11%. This new data puts the current housing supply at 8.8 months, also a drop from just under 10 months. Combined with the sustained DJIA at above 9,000 evidence is pointing toward a sustained housing recovery.

The NAR reported, http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2009/07/sales_up, that June existing home sales increased 3.6% in June. Overall US home inventory decreased .7% to a 9.8 month supply and average home prices increased .9%, further signs that the housing recovery which began late April has taken hold. Record low interest rates, 5.42% (30 year fixed, conven.), averaging a point below June ‘08 and the $8,000 stimulus have helped drive 29% of home sales. This is excellent for retirees who need to sell a home to purchase elsewhere.

20,000, Boomers, turning 62 daily are taking advantage of record values and fueling retirement home demand. Ideal-Living.com (8,681*) & LiveSouth.com (3,950*), 7/13, both achieved the highest number of unique visitors* in a single day. LiveSouth.com, Jan. - June ‘09, increased page views 191% for FL communities and 118% for FL gated communities. On the “Top Destinations” press release FL was in 3 of top 10 spots. FL was most viewed on Yesterday’s “Top Retiree Spots” opt-in e-campaign which helped get the record results by driving by 6,832 unique click thrus.

Advertising is tied to results in this market. Leads mean very little, it’s about tours and sales.
Carrying cost; taxes, association fees, club dues are all being scrutinized by prospects.
The club lifestyle is not as important as saving money. The 45-55 year old, investor buyer has decreased significantly. The close “if you change your mind, you can sell it later” is gone. They were also hardest hit by wealth and job loss. Our buyers, (median age increased from 56 to 58), expect value, but can pay cash.

RPI Updates
Web traffic has passed 2000 unique visitors per day.
Web PR has been key, for credibility and database building.
The digital magazine has been instrumental in driving web click thrus to advertisers’ sites.
We have also added a tour generation element that drives appointments (500+ per show).
Each attendee is given 3 discovery vouchers attached to a calendar and map, & the CRP Guide as they enter a show.
Limited magazines are available at show, but we hold and send it 7-10 days before each show, (partially why attendance is up). Beginning this fall 1/4 page discovery tours will be listed in that issue.
Attendees are instructed that “they won’t get what they are here to receive unless they complete the process and visit communities,” “,,,and each ex. has arranged a discovery tour to make it easy and fun to explore.” Read the rest of this entry »